Supply of fish oil has remained consistent throughout 2022 and has not seen much fluctuation compared to the previous year, yet prices have been upheld. The elevated prices of other feed commodities, specifically proteins and oils, have greatly impacted the cost of fish meal and oil according to Rabobank's outlook report for 2023.
Fishing Industry Poised for Growth in 2023
The Peruvian Ministry for Production has made a major announcement for the fishing industry, revealing a winter quota increase of 11.5% for the upcoming season, with a target of 2.283 metric tons to be harvested from December to March. This follows the success of last winter, when 100% quota utilization was achieved, and is a positive sign for the industry, as the South American country is one of the world's leading suppliers of fish oil and fishmeal.
In addition to the Peruvian quota, the fishing industry is poised for growth in 2023 with positive supply outlooks in Europe and a potential for price normalization. However, as soymeal and soy oil prices begin to ease from their peak in the first half of 2022, Rabobank predicts a similar effect on fish meal and fish oil prices.
While the correction in prices should not be overstated, the tight supply of terrestrial feed commodities is only declining slightly and any unforeseen issues could lead to renewed price support. Chinese fish meal stocks, though slightly below last year's level, were good in the third quarter of 2022, which suggests Chinese buyers may be cautious in committing to higher prices as Peruvian supply from the 2022 winter quota hits the market in late 2022 and early 2023.
Overall, the fishing industry looks set for growth in 2023 with increased quotas, a positive supply outlook, and the potential for price normalization. The dutch bank was also optimistic about the salmon and the shrimp outlook in the coming years.