"The world's huge appetite for Norwegian seafood is clearly reflected in the export figures for the first three months of the year," said the Norwegian Minister of Fisheries and Ocean Policy.

 

Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council.

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Is there a limit to Norwegian seafood exports?

Billion-dollar growth to the U.S. and China in Q1 2025 resulted in the best first quarter ever in terms of value.

Marta Negrete

Norway did it again. After reaching unprecedented heights in 2024, now, in the first quarter of 2025, it exported NOK 44 billion worth of seafood, 9% more than in the same period last year and, making a longer-term comparison, almost all the seafood exports of 2009, when they totalled NOK 44.6 billion for the whole year. The Scandinavian country has never exported such a high value of seafood products in a first quarter as this year, and so we ask: Is there a limit to Norwegian seafood exports?

From January to March 2025, Norwegian seafood was exported to a total of 138 countries, two more than in the first quarter of last year and, as has been the case since 2025 began - it also reached record figures in January and February - the value of Norwegian seafood exports to the U.S. has again made a difference in March, ranking first, ahead of Poland and Denmark, two regular processing destination countries.

Moreover, the U.S. is not only the largest single market but also the largest-growing, up 56% over the quarter. In this index of the largest growing markets in terms of value in Q1 205, China is next, with a rise of 37%.

In March alone, Norway exported seafood products worth NOK 14.8 billion. This represents an increase of NOK 934 million, or 7%, compared to the same month last year.

Despite uncertainty over tariffs, the United States made a difference

In Q1 2025, Norway exported seafood products to the U.S. totalling NOK 4.9 billion, which represented an increase of 56% - NOK 1.8 billion - compared to Q1 2024. However, the United States was not only the largest market in terms of value, as said, it also grew the most. It alone accounted for 11% of total Norwegian seafood exports in the first quarter, with a total volume of 35,591 tons, up 34%.

"Despite a great deal of uncertainty related to the introduction of tariff barriers, growth in seafood exports to the U.S. has been very strong in the first three months of the year. In addition to salmon, this is driven by snow crab and king crab. For the first time ever, the value of shellfish exports to the US is higher than to the EU market in a first quarter," Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), explained.

The reciprocal tariffs the Trump Administration announced last week go into effect just today. In the case of Norway, the percentage has finally been set at 15%, although, as WeAreAquaculture reported, the impact on the final product will depend not only on the origin of the product, but also on other factors such as in which country it is processed or in what material it is packaged.

Uncertainty about what may happen from now on has meant that, unlike in other months, even the Norwegian Minister of Fisheries and Ocean Policy, Marianne Sivertsen Næss, has commented on the results of the NSC's March and Q1 2025 report on the country's seafood exports.

"The USA has grown strongly as a market in the first quarter and is now by far the largest single market for Norwegian seafood in terms of value, ahead of both Poland and Denmark. Despite favourable export figures, we are now entering an uncertain time for world trade with increased tariffs," Minister Sivertsen Næss said.

 "The government is working actively in favour of Norwegian interests and is in close contact with the industry. Although the industry is adaptable, the situation may be challenging for parts of the Norwegian seafood industry and lead to certain changes in the flow of goods for global seafood trade," she added.  

Also cautious, but perhaps a bit more optimistic, was Anne-Kristine Øen, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to the U.S., who is just arriving in the position, precisely at this bittersweet moment for Norwegian seafood exports in the United States.

"This is a turbulent period in terms of trade policy, but the industry in Norway and the USA is reporting 'business as usual'. The seafood industry is global in nature and used to adapting to constantly changing framework conditions," Øen stated.

China, in positive development

The global market context referred to in the NSC's envoy to the U.S. is precisely where we find that China - the country that seems to have become the main antagonist of the United States in the open trade war - is the second country that has grown the most and, therefore, has made a difference in terms of the value of Norwegian seafood exports.

Seafood products worth NOK 2.7 billion were exported from Norway to China during the first quarter of the year, representing a growth of 37% compared to the same period last year.

"The first quarter saw value growth for salmon, cod, redfish, mackerel and saithe. This is a very positive development in a market that is becoming increasingly important for Norwegian seafood exports," NSC's CEO, Christian Chramer, said.

Salmon, again the most exported species

As usual, in terms of value, salmon was the most exported species, followed by cod and trout, whose exports in this first quarter grew by a significant 33%. Aquaculture accounted for 72% of the total value of exports in the first quarter, while wild capture accounted for 28%.

This difference between farmed and wild fish was especially noticeable in cod, which was affected by a 25% reduction in quota. The subsequent drop in catches meant that the export volume for fresh-farmed cod increased by 45% to 4,710 tonnes, the highest export volume of farmed cod ever in a single quarter. In value terms, it accounted for 28%.

"The first quarter has been characterised by increased export volumes for salmon, high prices for cod, mackerel and snow crab and strong value growth to the USA and China," said Christian Chramer, assessing the results. "In addition, the Norwegian krone was weaker in the first quarter than in the same period last year, which has also helped to increase the value of exports measured in Norwegian kroner," he continued.

As Chramer noted, in this first quarter of 2025, beyond salmon and cod, there are other species that have strongly entered the top 10 of the largest in terms of value. Thus, with a total of NOK 398 million, the king crab was the species with the highest increase, 85%. It was followed by snow crab, with 82% growth - NOK 901 million more than in Q1 2024 -and mackerel, which increased by 54%, after recording exports worth NOK 1.7 billion.

In the specific case of crabs - both king crab and snow crab - it was exports to the U.S., which experienced tremendous growth in the first quarter of this year, that made the difference.

"After the first three months of the year, shellfish exports to the USA have already surpassed last year, which was also a record year. The growth has come both in terms of volume and value for both these species," NSC's envoy to the United States, Anne-Kristine Øen, explained.

Meanwhile, for mackerel - surprisingly strong in the first quarter, as the share is likely to be down 22% this year - direct exports to Norway's most important market, Japan, were at a historically low level.

However, as the Norwegian Seafood Council explained, much of the mackerel that ends up in Japan is processed in Vietnam and China, where demand did see an increase in the first quarter compared to last year. So, it seems more than likely that the product will end up there, albeit by a longer route.