"We are still in a phase with quite a bit of uncertainty," warns an expert from the Norwegian Seafood Council.
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If there is one thing that is clear about the U.S. tariffs in general and as they affect the seafood industry in particular, it is that there are many different scenarios and not much certainty about what lies ahead for the industry after 'Liberation Day'.
In such a globalized world and industry, to say that there are as many scenarios as there are countries is an understatement. And it's not just because a salmon fillet produced in Norway might pass through an EU country for processing before reaching the U.S., it's also because perhaps that same fillet travels packaged in an aluminium container... what tariff would apply in that case?
Even if we managed to determine it here and now, with a Donald Trump willing to make deals if some country offers something "phenomenal," everything could change, or at least, that is what recent experience teaches us with cases such as Canada.
Last Wednesday, the President of the United States announced the imposition of a universal tariff of 10%, a base tariff that goes into effect tomorrow, April 5, but it is not the only one. A week after the announcement, on April 9, the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" will also come into effect, imposing higher tariffs on specific nations, including several world seafood industry powerhouses.
Practically all over the world, analysts agree in pointing out that these protectionist policies baptized by the Trump Administration as 'Liberation Day' are, in fact, a declaration of trade war to the world. A war that will particularly affect some countries such as China.
The 34% that the Asian giant will face is one of the most striking figures, although there are other countries that exceed it, such as Sri Lanka with 44%, or Cambodia with 49%. The European Union, with 20%, and Norway, with 15%, are also above the universal tariff.
Others, such as the United Kingdom, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Chile, or Ecuador, remain at 10%, while another important producer country, Canada, continues, for the time being, to be exempt from tariffs as the extension obtained in February continues.
Impositions, exceptions, negotiations... in the coming days, we are going to hear a lot about these terms. With the United States open to bilateral negotiations, everything is up in the air and could change between now and next Wednesday, but we will try to shed some light on what could happen in different scenarios, using the example of some specific countries.
We begin with China, which, as mentioned, is one of the hardest hit by the new U.S. tariffs policy. Although the increase for its products announced this week is 34%, this is in addition to the tariffs introduced on February 4, a further 10%, and on March 4, which adds another 10%.
"In practice, this means that a Chinese product that had no regular tariff on February 3 will now be subject to a 54 percent tariff," explained Øystein Valanes, head of market access at the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC). This applies to frozen fillets of salmon, cod, haddock, and pollock from China.
However, as noted by the NSC, most seafood product lines from the Asian country to the U.S. already had a previous tariff of 25%, which in practice means that, as of April 9, this rate will increase to 79%.
In the middle ground are most South American countries, where it seems that only the universal 10% tariff will be applied. This is the case of Ecuador, one of the largest shrimp producers in the world, which has the United States as its second most important market, accounting for 18-20% of its exports.
As noted by Ecuador's National Chamber of Aquaculture, despite the additional 10% tariff, the country has not fared badly compared to other shrimp producing countries facing considerably higher tariff barriers such as India (26%), Indonesia (32%), Vietnam (46%) or Thailand (36%). However, representatives of the Ecuadorian shrimp industry have urged for the reinstatement of the pre-tariff conditions.
Chile is in a similar position, where, beyond copper cathodes - which for now remain free of tariffs - salmon is among its most exported products to the U.S. and will also be charged with that 10%. According to information from the local newspaper La Tercera, in 2024, Chile exported fresh or refrigerated Atlantic salmon fillets worth USD 1.56 billion.
However, like Ecuador, Chile could also benefit from the comparison with other producing countries, as highlighted in the same local newspaper by the economist and Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business Sciences of the Universidad de Los Andes, Álvaro García, who pointed to Chilean salmon compared to Norwegian salmon.
If Chile enters with a 10% tariff now, but Norway with a 20% tariff, given that the previous price difference was less than 10%, it may happen that Chilean salmon will gain market share in the U.S., García told La Tercera, although, he pointed out, it should also be borne in mind that in both cases, both Chilean and Norwegian salmon will be more expensive for U.S. consumers, who could switch to other proteins.
García does not, however, envisage a third scenario. U.S. consumers could continue to demand salmon, albeit from another origin, such as Canada, which not only has the United States as the largest destination market for its seafood exports but also approximately 70% of British Columbia's annual farmed salmon production is destined for U.S. customers.
After February's extensions, Canada is now on the opposite side of the fence to China, with its seafood exempt from tariffs. "For Canada, the exemption still applies to goods falling under the USMCA free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. This means Canadian seafood to the U.S. is exempt from tariffs," NSC's head of market access explained.
"Right now, we don't know how long this exemption will last, as no end date has been set," Øystein Valanes continued. However, the NSC pointed out that if the exemption is eliminated, except for energy products, which will have a 10% tariff, all other Canadian products will have a 12% tariff.
"It's worth noting that Canadian and Mexican goods not covered by the free trade agreement will face a 12 percent tariff starting April 9. What determines whether a product is covered or not is whether it's considered to be sufficiently processed in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada," he emphasized.
As said at the beginning, another factor in the tariff assessment is whether the product has been processed in the U.S. If so, the importer must pay tariffs on the value of input materials from a third country used in the product.
"This applies when input materials make up 79 percent or less of the finished product. That means if U.S. input materials make up 20 percent or less, the importer must pay tariffs based on the total value of the finished product," Valanes said.
The Norwegian Seafood Council expert offers a theoretical example of how this could affect aluminum trays, which are commonly used in portion packs for salmon and trout fillets.
"Some U.S. importers and Norwegian exporters interpret that when importing, for example, trout fillets in such an aluminum tray into the U.S., the value of the tray will be subject to a 25 percent tariff. In the EU's case, the fillet would then get a 20 percent tariff. This will both increase costs and cause significant extra work for importers and exporters," Øystein Valanes noted.
The point is that the U.S. currently considers filleting to be sufficient processing to change the origin of the product. "That is the direct reason why frozen fillets of salmon, pollock, cod, and haddock from China have been tariff-exempt," the NSC's expert explained.
Valnes gave a further example explaining how the application of this criterion will affect Norwegian salmon products. As he noted, Norwegian salmon filleted in the EU will have a 20% tariff, while the same Norwegian salmon filleted in Norway will have a 15% tariff.
"We are still in a phase with quite a bit of uncertainty," concluded Øystein Valanes, who recalled that products that have already been shipped and are in transit will not be affected by the new tariffs.
In the specific case of Norway, after breaking records in seafood products exports to the U.S. market in January, February, and March, we will have to wait until the end of April to see how the 'Liberation Day' policies will affect it.
