On the eve of the Chinese New Year, the strong salmon demand from China cushioned some of the impact of the US downturn.
Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council.
In January 2024, the U.S. was the largest single market for Norwegian seafood exports. A year later, the value of exports has fallen by 37%, and the country has dropped out of the top 3 in value, having been overtaken by Poland, the Netherlands, and China in the list of Norway's largest single markets.
January of last year also marked the best January ever for Norwegian seafood exports, a trend that has not been repeated in 2026, as the sharp fall in value to the United States contributed to the overall decline, which, nevertheless, remained moderate thanks to strong demand in China.
Last month, Norway exported seafood worth NOK 14.8 billion, a decrease of NOK 416 million, or 3%, compared with the same month in 2024.
"Lower salmon prices, a weaker US dollar, reduced quotas for several wild fish species and tougher competition in important markets meant that Norwegian seafood exports fell in January," said Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC).
As WeAreAquaculture reported last month, although Norway set a new export record in 2025, the NSC was already warning that the outlook was much more demanding and gloomy than a year earlier, when the U.S. tariffs and the challenging trade situation they brought with them had not yet begun.
Looking at the figures for December, they were still positive, but the outlook for the development of the quarterly value was not so optimistic, and that trend continued in January.
"High and unpredictable tariffs and a weaker dollar have created great uncertainty and challenges in the U.S., which remains our largest fillet market for both salmon and trout. The demanding trade situation is something we are seeing the consequences of now," Chramer explained.
According to the NSC report, the importance of the U.S. as a fillet market has already had consequences for the Norwegian fillet industry, which has seen how, after an 8% growth in export volumes for salmon and trout fillets last year, exports fell by as much as 9% in January 2026 compared with January 2025.
"This has consequences for large parts of the seafood industry. Uncertainty is widespread, and the global seafood trade is so closely intertwined that this will have an impact across several species and markets," the CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council warned.
While this was happening in the United States, compared to January of last year, the European market increased its share of total Norwegian seafood exports from 62% to 66%. Poland's growth was particularly noteworthy. "This is traditionally a processing market, but now they are also eating more salmon themselves," Chramer explained.
In addition, last month the Norwegian krone strengthened significantly against the US dollar and several major Asian currencies. "This helped to dampen the value of exports measured in Norwegian kroner. A stronger krone makes Norwegian seafood more expensive in the U.S. and Japan, for example," the NSC CEO continued.
However, there was one Asian market where the currency effect did not appear to occur. "For the first time ever, the export value of salmon to China exceeded NOK 1 billion in a single month, so strong demand is cushioning some of the impact of the US downturn," Christian Chramer said.
China was Norway's second-largest growth market in January, both in volume and value. Only Poland surpassed this figure.
On the eve of the Chinese New Year, a peak season for salmon consumption in the Chinese market, a total of 10,997 tons of Norwegian salmon products were exported to the Asian giant, representing an 86% increase in volume. With, as mentioned, an export value exceeding NOK 1 billion, the year-on-year increase in value was 34%.
As was the case last year, in January 2026 favorable production conditions have resulted in higher volumes of Norwegian salmon. As the NSC explained, coupled with uncertainty in world trade and a weak dollar, this has shifted exports from the U.S. to Asia—especially China—and Poland, which is the largest EU market for processing Norway's salmon.
"The export volume for salmon increased significantly in January, with major changes in the flow of goods to different markets. We must go back to 2021 to see similar changes," explained seafood analyst Paul T. Aandahl of the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Norwegian seafood exports in January, were also characterised by high prices and declining volumes for mackerel, saithe and prawns. Quotas for several wild-caught species, including cod, have been further reduced this year, which, as Christian Chramer explained, beyond exports, also affects the local Norwegian processing industry.
"For mackerel, we have to go all the way back to 1990 to find a lower export volume, and this is now being felt throughout the value chain. The battle for raw materials has never been tougher, which is demanding for the onshore industry," the NSC CEO said.
Fortunately for Norwegian seafood exports, within that outlook, with the lowest cod quotas since 1991, and fresh wild cod becoming an increasingly exclusive product, after a significant drop in volume last year, this year's season for quality-branded skrei is starting with solid volume growth.
In addition, farmed cod, which accounted for 34% of the export value of fresh cod in January, increase 8% in export volume and 18% in value.
With all this, the ten largest markets for Norwegian seafood exports in January 2026 in terms of value compared with the same month last year were Poland, with NOK 1.9 billion (+55%); China, with NOK 1.2 billion (+8%); the Netherlands, with NOK 943 million (+8%); the U.S., with NOK 937 million (-37%); France, with NOK 913 million (+1%); the UK, with NOK 849 million (+2%); Spain with NOK 820 million (-4%); Denmark with DKK 733 million (-11%); Italy, with NOK 635 million (-19%), and South Korea, with NOK 432 million (-21%).