2025 was a year characterized by strong volume growth for salmon, which led to a drop in prices.
Attribution: Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council.
"2025 was a demanding year for seafood, with lower quotas and catches at record prices for all our most important wild-caught species. The year was also characterised by strong volume growth for salmon. Despite a significantly lower salmon price, it was a record year for Norwegian seafood exports in terms of value."
This is how Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), summarized the results of Norwegian seafood exports last year. However, even setting a record equivalent to 38 million meals per day throughout the year, a deeper analysis shows that there was growth, but it was moderate.
If we look at the figures for December, they are also positive. Last month, exports of Norwegian seafood products reached a value of NOK 16.1 billion, an increase of NOK 1.1 billion, or 7% year-on-year. However, if we look at the quarterly value development, the outlook is not so optimistic.
According to data from the NSC, in the first quarter of 2025, the value of Norwegian seafood exports was NOK 44.3 billion, an increase of 9.3% compared to the same period last year. In the second quarter, it was NOK 40.9 billion, 2.1% higher than in 2024. In the third quarter, growth continued, with a value of NOK 45.8 billion, 4% higher than the previous year. However, in the fourth quarter, despite the value being the highest of all quarters in 2025, reaching NOK 50.6 billion, it did not decrease, but neither did it show any growth compared to 2024, i.e., 0%.
Last year, Norway sold seafood products to more than 150 countries. The ten most important markets in terms of value were: Poland, with NOK 19.1 billion (+6%), the U.S., with NOK 15.8 billion (+19%), China, with DKK 12.3 billion (+31%), Denmark with DKK 10.9 billion (-20%), the Netherlands with NOK 10.8 billion (-3%), France with NOK 10.5 billion (0%), the UK with NOK 9.8 billion (+11%), Spain with NOK 9.1 billion (+3%), Italy with NOK 7 billion (-5%) and Portugal with NOK 6.1 billion (+16%).
However, if instead of the total value we look at the percentage growth in value compared to the previous year, the top three countries remain the same, but their positions change. In 2025, the market that recorded the highest growth was China (+NOK 2.9 billion / +30.9%). Next was the United States (+NOK 2.5 billion / +19.1%), which started the year on an upward trend but declined due to U.S. tariffs. And third place went to Poland (+NOK 1 billion / +5.8%), a traditional transit market for Norwegian seafood processing.
Moreover, in its 2025 report, the Norwegian Seafood Council also analyzed the development of seafood exports by sector. This revealed that, last year, aquaculture accounted for 73% of total seafood exports in terms of value, while in terms of volume it accounted for 54%.
Specifically, Norway exported 1.5 million tons of seafood products from aquaculture worth NOK 133.4 billion, representing a 13.1% increase in volume, while compared to 2024, the value increased by 2%, or NOK 3.2 billion.
Regarding fisheries development, in 2025, it accounted for 27% of total Norwegian seafood exports in terms of value and 46% in terms of volume. Norway exported 1.3 million tons of seafood from fisheries worth NOK 48.1 billion.
In contrast to what happened in the aquaculture sector, in fisheries, volume fell by 12.5%, while value increased by NOK 3.2 billion, or 7%, compared to 2024.
As Christian Chramer explained above, 2025 was a year characterized by strong volume growth for salmon, which led to a drop in prices, while in fisheries, lower quotas and catches set record prices for all of Norway's most important wild-caught species.
Thus, as the year drew to a close, November marked the second consecutive month in which Norwegian seafood exports fell in value compared to the same month in 2024, largely due to these low quotas. "In November, even historically high prices were unable to compensate for the decline in volume for a number of wild-caught species," the NSC's CEO said at the time.
But when analyzing the results, which trend carries more weight? Should we look at the year as a whole and the record achieved, or at the second half, when the value of Norway's seafood exports began a downward trend?
Norwegian Minister of Fisheries and Ocean Policy Marianne Sivertsen Næss opted for optimism. "The value record is impressive in a year characterised by increased turmoil in world trade," she noted. "It says a lot about the seafood industry's strong international competitiveness."
"The government is committed to strengthening market access for the seafood industry and will continue to prioritise this work in the new year," added Sivertsen Næss. One of her last actions last year was to visit China, where she participated in a salmon event in Beijing organized by the NSC, and spoke about what the Asian giant's market means for Norwegian seafood exports and the boom they experienced in 2025.
The truth is that, according to data from the Norwegian Seafood Council, Norway's seafood exports have experienced an adventurous development in recent years. In 2015, the value of exports totalled NOK 74.5 billion, so if we compare that figure with that of 2025, the result is a growth of more than NOK 100 billion in 10 years.
"However, the increase in seafood exports in 2025 is moderate for the second year in a row. After strong growth in export value in the wake of the corona pandemic from 2021 to 2023, we have seen growth in both 2024 and 2025 that barely exceeds the general price growth in Norway," explained Christian Chramer, in an analysis that was less optimistic than that of the Minister.
The CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council illustrated his analysis by pointing to three main factors: large quota reductions and high price growth in fisheries; weak price developments for Norwegian salmon; and the new U.S. tariffs.
About the reductions in fishing quotas, although in terms of value these are generally offset by the increase in prices of the most important wild species, as Chramer explained, this price increase in turn has a challenging effect on the onshore industry.
"Despite setting a new export record in 2025, the backdrop is far more demanding and gloomier than at the same time last year. The strong price growth for cod and mackerel has been challenging for the onshore industry. Those who process fish and create jobs along the coast now have lower volumes of wild fish available and face a very tough economic situation," he said.
A good example of how the processing industry is affected is the case of fresh wild cod. As NSC seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan explained, it is not uncommon for exports of fresh wild cod to fall more than landings when quotas are reduced. "This is due to a large Norwegian processing industry that needs fresh raw materials for production," he said.
"2025 was characterised by a land-based industry in Norway that fought an increasingly tough battle for raw materials at ever higher prices. This resulted in a larger proportion of the fresh wild cod going to domestic production of salted fish, clipfish and stockfish," Brækkan added.
As for the next factor pointed out by the NSC's CEO, the weak price development for Norwegian salmon, last year's favorable production conditions, including high sea temperatures, led to strong production growth. NSC seafood analyst Paul T. Aandahl explained that, as a result, both in Norway and globally, the export price was lower than in the previous two years.
However, as Christian Chramer noted, unlike in recent years, in 2025, neither salmon nor any other Norwegian seafood exports could count on the help of the so-called currency effect.
"In recent years, the Norwegian krone has been weak against our most important trading currencies, such as the euro and the dollar. This has made Norwegian seafood cheaper to buy in the markets. In 2025, the Norwegian krone strengthened against the dollar and several important Asian currencies, while the euro remained unchanged compared with the previous year. As a result, we had no currency support in 2025," he said.
Nevertheless, this price drop also helped Norwegian salmon expand its market share in countries that are more sensitive to price, as Chramer himself explained in the NSC report on Norwegian seafood exports in July, when China overtook the U.S. as the destination market for Norwegian seafood exports.
"Salmon is the main driver of export value to China. A combination of record-high available volumes, lower prices and new emerging sales channels in the Chinese market contributed to the positive trend continuing in July. China is now the largest growth market for Norwegian salmon so far this year," then explained the Norwegian Seafood Council CEO.
The third factor highlighted by Chramer in his 'not-so-optimistic' view of the 2025 results was what he called "new U.S. tariffs," which, in reality, are not so new. Just yesterday, January 20, marked one year since what was a distant threat during campaign rallies became more tangible in Trump's inauguration speech. A few days later, on February 3, the announced tariffs became a reality.
From then on, there were many scenarios and few certainties, creating what the Norwegian Seafood Council describes in its 2025 report as "noise and unrest." Finally, tariffs on Norwegian seafood exports were set at 15%, and in August, the U.S. tariffs ended up affecting Norwegian seafood exports.
However, what was a handicap in the case of Norwegian salmon and the U.S. market—direct competitors such as Canada and Chile faced only a 10% tariff—also meant that there was more product available for the demanding Chinese market, which, eager for high-quality salmon at a good price, month after month, increased its purchases of product from Norway, thus reduceding Chile's market share in China.
Furthermore, as a result of this same flow of goods—despite tariffs and as a consequence of sanctions on Russian crab—another Norwegian seafood product, king crab, bucked the trend seen with salmon in 2025, becoming an increasingly significant species for Norway's exports to the U.S.
As Josefine Voraa, Head of shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council, explained about the Norwegian king crab, "the U.S. is clearly the main market for frozen fish, and with the current price situation, the country is almost alone in taking large volumes at these levels."
"Last year, Norway sold seafood to more than 150 countries, so we are completely dependent on good market access and an efficient flow of goods. The U.S.'s new tariffs created a lot of noise and turmoil for Norwegian seafood exports," NSC CEO Christian Chramer stated.
"From being a market with record growth and an almost insatiable appetite for salmon and crab from Norway in the first half of 2025, U.S. trade throughout the year was characterised by tariffs, a weaker dollar and weaker development," he added.
In 2025, the year that marked the 200th anniversary of Norwegian seafood products arriving in the U.S., 9% of Norwegian seafood exports went to this country, the highest share since 1989. However, as mentioned above, a year that began with the United States as the largest single market in the best January ever for Norwegian seafood exports ended with the U.S. market as the second largest destination, but with a downward trend.
While the first quarter began with a 55% year-on-year increase in the value of exports to the U.S., in the second quarter, that value increased by 20% compared to 2024. Thus, after the first half of the year, the country was on track to become the largest market for Norwegian seafood products for the first time. However, in the third quarter, that growth slowed to 6% compared to the previous year, and in the fourth quarter, it fell by 1% year-on-year.
Despite everything, at the end of 2025, the Norwegian Seafood Council emphasized that the U.S. market still has great potential. "The U.S. is by far the world's largest market for salmon consumption and has been one of our largest growth markets over time, also in 2025. It is very important for Norwegian seafood, and the potential for further growth remains high," said Christian Chramer. At that point, there had been no news of new tariffs for Norway due to tensions over Greenland.
And, while this was happening in the west, in the east, China recorded the highest growth in value in 2025, with an increase of NOK 2.9 billion, or 31% compared to the previous year. The Asian country purchased Norwegian seafood products totalling NOK 12.3 billion and went from being its sixth-largest market in 2024 to its third-largest market in 2025.
"Thanks to increased e-commerce, better distribution channels and strong growth in salmon consumption, China became a growth engine for Norwegian seafood exports in 2025," the NSC CEO explained. "Norway has never exported more seafood to China, measured in value, than last year. Growth was particularly strong for salmon, prawns, redfish and Greenland halibut."
"Last year, the volume of salmon to China was twice as high as the year before. This is due to strong growth in demand, falling prices and the fact that the Chinese no longer just buy large salmon over six kilos, but also smaller sizes," continued Chramer.
However, while, as WeAreAquaculture explained last April, Norwegian salmon looks both east and west, the truth is that, according to the NSC, it was the European market that bought the most Norwegian seafood products last year. For the twelfth consecutive year, Poland was the largest market in terms of value.
In addition, and also in terms of value, Poland was also the third growth market in 2025, on top of being the largest market for Norwegian salmon, and this time not only as a transit market.
"Poland is an important processing market, but we see that consumption of Norwegian salmon has increased significantly there in recent years," said Christian Chramer.
Even so, as the Norwegian Seafood Council also pointed out, despite being the most important market, the European market also experienced a setback in 2025, as the total value share of Norway's exports to Europe fell from 67% to 63%.