U.S. flag on the Trump Tower building in New York.
Photo: Adobe Stock.
What was something of a distant threat during campaign rallies became more tangible in Trump's inauguration speech on January 20 and is now a reality. The announced U.S. tariffs are here and Canada and Mexico, its closest neighbors and historic trading partners, are the most affected with a 25% additional tariff on their exports to the U.S., along with China, with a 10%.
Regarding possible exceptions, only one: energy resources from Canada, which will have a lower tariff of 10%. At no time is there any mention of anything related to food production or the seafood industry.
"ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Until the crisis is alleviated, President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff."
So read the first paragraph of the fact sheet with which The White House reported the measure last Saturday. Further on, it continues, "Tariffs are a powerful, proven source of leverage for protecting the national interest. President Trump is using the tools at hand and taking decisive action that puts Americans' safety and our national security first."
The order that will take effect tomorrow, February 4, has put the world on guard against what looks set to become a trade war and has already caused the dollar to soar on Monday. At the time of writing, the U.S. currency is approaching parity with the Euro and setting record highs against the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan, while the Mexican Peso is depreciating to its lowest level since 2022.
The response of the three affected countries has been swift and, although each one has its own timetable for implementing countermeasures, they all agree on one thing: in a trade war, everyone loses.
China, the most leisurely in its response - also the least affected, at 10% - has announced that it will denounce the tariff to the World Trade Organization (WTO), but in its statement, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, warned, "We will also take corresponding measures to resolutely protect our interests."
Mexico will announce today, Monday, the measures that make up what they call 'Plan B', but in a video statement issued over the weekend, its President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said, "This measure of 25% tariffs has effects for both countries, but it has very serious effects for the economy of the United States, because it is going to raise the costs tremendously of all the products that are exported from Mexico to the United States, it is going to have a 25% higher cost."
Canada, the most direct in its measures, has shown itself to be in the same line, and on Saturday it counterattacked by announcing that it is moving forward with 25% tariffs on 155 billion dollars worth of goods in response to the "unjustified and unreasonable tariffs imposed by the United States on Canadian goods."
In Rabobank's latest Global Aquaculture report - updated for 1H 2025 - experts Gorjan Nikolik and Novel Sharma spoke of "a cautiously positive outlook for 1H 2025," although they also warned about the consequences that the new U.S. government's measures could have on the sector.
"Inflation is easing in the West, which may gradually boost demand, but Trump's U.S, presidential win could spark trade war-induced inflation in the U.S. or even across the West. Higher inflation could reduce disposable income and create a demand shift to lower-cost proteins such as chicken," they said.
As mentioned, U.S. tariffs are finally here and, if the response of the Mexican and Canadian governments is anything to go by, this warning looks set to come true.
Nor are the more recent forecasts of SpareBank 1 Markets analyst Knut-Ivar Bakken encouraging. In a note published in the Norwegian financial media Dagens Næringsliv, Bakken anticipated negative reactions in aquaculture share prices today, especially in companies with operations in Canada, such as Mowi and Grieg Seafood.
The day's results seem to prove him right. Following Trump's tariff proposal, the seafood index on the Oslo Stock Exchange opened today down more than 3%, with Grieg Seafood falling more than 7%, and Mowi, the world's largest salmon farmer, down 3%. The world's second largest fish producer, SalMar, fell 2.6%
In other words, the announcement of the tariffs is already affecting Norway even when they do not yet directly affect Europe. And all this when the Norwegian seafood industry is also on alert for the consequences that the lack of cooperation on energy policy could have on Norway's seafood trade with the EU.
In his analysis in Dagens Næringsliv, Knut-Ivar Bakken also recalled that the U.S. market represents approximately 23% of the global salmon market and that approximately two-thirds of Canadian salmon production is exported to the U.S.
Precisely in the face of Trump tariff threats, the Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance (CAIA) called last week "to stop damaging Trudeau policies and embark on a positive pathway to strength through sustainable growth." The association said the 2023 Statistics Canada aquaculture production and trade data confirmed the measures taken by the Trudeau government have significantly weakened the sector and must be stopped in the face of U.S. tariff threats in the wake of Donald Trump's inauguration.
In CAIA's view, the measures taken by the federal government have weakened Canada's domestic food production and put workers at risk at a time when the Canadian aquaculture industry needs to be strong and robust for coastal communities across the country.
Now, in announcing Canada's tariff package in response to U.S. tariffs, the Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs, Dominic LeBlanc, assured that its first objective is precisely to protect Canadian workers and industries.
"This first set of countermeasures is about protecting—and supporting—Canada's interests, workers, and industries. These U.S. tariffs are plainly unjustified. They are detrimental to both American and Canadian families and businesses. Working with provincial, territorial and industry partners, our singular focus is to get them removed as quickly as possible. Until then, our response will be balanced and resolute," he stated.
Both the Canadian and Mexican governments have announced meetings with the United States today, Monday, to continue addressing the issue in search of a collaborative solution to move away from the trade war. However, while this is happening, there are already companies suffering the direct consequences of this fight of tariffs and counter-tariffs.
The case of Atlantic Sapphire is particularly striking. This morning the company issued a statement in which it warned about how it would be affected by the announcement from the U.S. government to impose 25% tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada from tomorrow, February 4th, 2025.
"Atlantic Sapphire predominantly sources its feed from Skretting's feed mills in Canada. The newly announced U.S. import tariffs on Canadian products will significantly affect the cost of this imported feed," the release to the stock exchange said.
"In response, Atlantic Sapphire is evaluating options to mitigate the impact of these tariffs. This includes considering alternative sources of feed from non-Canadian mills," it continued.
The land-based salmon farmer based in Florida is, on paper, an example of what Donald Trump recently recommended to companies to avoid being affected by these tariffs: produce on U.S. soil. However, as seen, that is not going to spare it from their effects. For the time being, following the announcement about its Canadian feed source, the shares were hit hard and fell by 11% today, Monday.
As mentioned, the governments of Mexico and Canada will meet today with the U.S. government to continue negotiations. Meanwhile, China continues to prepare its response and, in Europe, the President of the European Council, António Costa, has convened a 'retreat' of leaders in which, for the first time since Brexit, Great Britain has been invited to participate.
The objective is to discuss European defense, but the general feeling is that at that meeting there will also be a lot of talk about the economy and exports to the United States, especially after Trump's statements yesterday claiming that there will also be tariffs for the European Union.
