Uncertain market trend for Norwegian salmon

Even after the best August ever for Norwegian seafood exports, analysts warned that the fall in salmon prices due to the depreciation of the krone has not been offset by corresponding volume growth.
Norwegian salmon sushi.

Norway exported 125,521 tons of salmon in August 2024. Compared with the same month last year, the value increased by 4% more, but the volume grew by only 3%.

Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council.

Updated on

According to the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) Norway exported seafood worth NOK 14.6 billion (EUR 1.2 billion - USD 1.3 billion) in August 2024. This means an increase of 5% - or NOK 724 million (EUR 60.8 million / USD 67.1 million) - from the same month last year and the highest export value ever measured in an August month. Despite this, and speaking specifically about the country's key salmon exports, NSC seafood analyst Paul Aandahl warned, "The market trend is uncertain."

He is not alone in issuing warnings. "At the same time as the low exchange rate results in good export figures measured in Norwegian krone, many seafood companies have to deal with the general increase in costs in society. Expenses are not necessarily in line with revenues," said Christian Chramer, NSC CEO, commenting on August 2024 results.

"Compared with last year, higher salmon volumes and a weaker Norwegian krone drove up the value of Norwegian seafood in August. We also see that higher volumes of trout and mackerel are contributing positively, in addition to an increase in prawn exports. At the same time, the price of salmon measured in foreign currency has fallen, while we had lower volumes of both saithe and cod," he also stated.

As a result, according to the Norwegian Seafood Council, half of the total growth in value can be attributed to the currency effect in August, when Norway exported seafood products to a total of 109 countries, five fewer than last year. Of these, Poland, Denmark, and the United States were the largest destination markets. 

Salmon volumes did not increase despite lower prices

In August, lower import prices for salmon did not translate into a corresponding growth in export volume. Norway exported 125,521 tons of salmon worth NOK 10.8 billion (EUR 907.4 million / USD 1 million). Compared with the same month last year, the value increased by NOK 374 million (EUR 31.4 million / USD 34.7 million), i.e. by 4% more, but the volume grew by only 3%. 

"Even though this is a record export month for Norwegian salmon, both in terms of price and volume, the market trend is uncertain," said the seafood analyst of the Norwegian Seafood Council, Paul Aandahl.

"In the global market, we see that the import value in local currency is weakening in several of the countries. A lower import price in 2024 has not been compensated by corresponding growth in volume. This applies, for example, to the USA, China and Thailand," he continued.

As an example, Germany, which recorded the highest growth in value in August, with an increase of 37% compared to August 2023. However, if we talk about volume, it closed the month at 5,556 tons, which is only 26% more than in the previous year.

Trout is now the second largest species in Norwegian seafood exports

Meanwhile, another salmonid, trout, marked a historically strong month in both value and volume. In August, 9,673 tons of trout worth NOK 771 million (EUR 64.8 million / USD 71.5 million) were exported. The value increased by NOK 205 million (EUR 17.2 million / USD 19 million) this is 36% up, compared to the same month last year, representing a volume growth of 44%.

This is a record export value for Norwegian trout in a single month, NOK 145 million (EUR 12.1 million / USD 13.4 million) more than the previous record month which, as reported by WeAreAquaculture, was July 2024. Ukraine, Lithuania, and the United States were the main destination markets.

In fact, Lithuania recorded the highest value growth in August, with an increase in value of 324% - NOK 81 million (EUR 6.8 million / USD 7.5 million) - compared to the same month last year. The export volume to Lithuania closed at 1,354 tons, which is 275% higher than in August 2023.

"Trout accounted for 5.3 per cent of the export value in August. This means that trout is now the second largest species in Norwegian seafood exports," claimed Paul Aandahl.

Related Stories

No stories found.
logo
WEAREAQUACULTURE
weareaquaculture.com