Top fish-producing countries like Peru and China would be among the worst affected under a high-emissions scenario, but nearly all regions of the world's oceans could experience declines of more than 10% in exploitable fish biomass by mid-century, according to FAO research.
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A new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warns of significant declines in global fish biomass due to climate change.
The report, titled Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), presents projections indicating that nearly all regions of the world's oceans could experience declines of more than 10% in exploitable fish biomass by mid-century, under a high-emissions scenario.
The FAO report highlights that if current high-emission trends continue, leading to global warming of 3–4.0 °C by the end of the century, fish biomass could decline by 30% or more in 48 countries and territories.
This scenario poses significant risks for top fish-producing nations, with projected declines of 37.3% for Peru and 30.9% for China's Exclusive Economic Zones.
Conversely, under a low-emissions scenario, which limits global warming to 1.5–2 °C, changes are less severe, with declines stabilizing between no change and a decrease of 10% or less across 178 countries and territories by the end of the century.
The report emphasizes the critical need for climate change mitigation measures to reduce the potential impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries.
“Lower emissions significantly reduce end-of-century biomass losses for nearly all countries and territories compared to the high-emissions scenario. This highlights the benefits of climate change mitigation measures for fisheries and aquatic foods,” said Manuel Barange, FAO Assistant Director-General and Director of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Division.
The findings underscore the importance of designing adaptation programs at appropriate scales to address these potential impacts, Barange said.
This is particularly vital for Small Island Developing States, where fisheries are a crucial source of food and income. The report indicates that in these regions, the low-emissions scenario could avert 68–90% of the extreme losses projected under high emissions.
The report is part of FAO’s broader effort to promote "Blue Transformation", which the FAO describes as "a vision of more resilient, equitable, and sustainable aquatic food systems".
The FAO says that future research by FishMIP will need to include other ocean and coastal uses beyond fisheries to provide a comprehensive approach to managing marine resources in the face of climate change.
This includes addressing the interconnections with freshwater and terrestrial systems to support policy directions at the intersection of climate change, biodiversity, water and food security, and health.
Launched in 2013, FishMIP has been instrumental in providing knowledge to support adaptive and resilient seafood sectors under climate change. In 2024, FishMIP2.0 was established to enhance the reliability of modeling projections and address a broader range of policy-related questions relevant to food security and marine resource management.
The report was produced by the Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), an international network of researchers working with FAO to understand the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries through a set of state-of-the-art numerical models.
The report’s release coincided with the 36th session of the Committee on Fisheries (COFI36), held from July 8 to 12, 2024, at FAO headquarters in Rome.
It also follows the latest edition of The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA), which reported that in 2022 aquaculture production had surpassed wild-capture fisheries for the first time in 2022, while total global production from aquaculture and fishing reached a new high of 223.2 million tonnes.
