Rabobank has reported through its Global Aquaculture Update 2H 2022 that salmon and shrimp farmer profits are "likely" to decline from recent highs. On the other hand, fish meal prices will benefit from the high prices of alternatives.
Thereby, the seafood demand will decrease compared to both 2H 2021 and 1H 2022 due to price corrections, and persistently high production costs, driven by feed, freight, and energy.
Still, without full recovery from covid, recessionary dynamics have already started in both the EU and the US. In addition, the report indicates that China is the most unpredictable factor in 2H 2022.
In more detail, Rabobank predicts a considerable upside for both shrimp and salmon, especially in Q4 2022. Contrary, salmon supply will improve in 2H. Despite this year's growth is still the lowest since 2016.
Finally, it is not expected that further losses can be compensated by effective global production. Peru's fish meal production will not surpass 2021.
In early June, we wrote about Rabobank report summarizes the main takeaways from the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA) GOAL Conference.
Rabobank is a cooperative bank that together with stakeholders, has been dedicated to creating a future-proof society and tackling major societal challenges for 125 years.
In the Netherlands, it serves retail and corporate clients; globally it focuses on the food and agriculture sector. Its motto is: "Together we can achieve more than we could individually".