Fishing vessels in the North Sea.
Photo: Adobe Stock.
The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has recommended a full closure of the cod fishery in the North Sea and adjacent waters in 2026, citing continued concerns over the health of the stock.
In its latest scientific advice, ICES said that when applying the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach alongside precautionary considerations, zero catch should be taken next year for all three cod substocks in the region: the Northwestern, Southern, and Viking groups. These substocks mix extensively and are caught together in the same fisheries, which complicates management.
“The Northern shelf cod population remains under significant pressure,” ICES said. “A zero-catch scenario gives the highest chance of recovery, particularly for the vulnerable southern substock.”
ICES also provided an alternative scenario using MSY calculations without precautionary considerations for two of the substocks. Under this approach, catches in 2026 would be capped at 8,670 tonnes for the Northwestern substock, 3,610 tonnes for the Viking substock, and zero tonnes for the Southern substock.
However, ICES warned that this would result in a 67% probability of the Southern substock falling below critical biomass limits (Blim). Even with a complete closure, the risk of this population dropping below critical limits by 2027 is still predicted to be 44%, underlining the fragile state of the stock.
The advice notes that fishing during the first quarter (January to March) may help reduce the risk to the Southern substock, as the three groups are thought to separate geographically during this period. This could allow fishing to focus on the healthier Northwestern and Viking groups.
However, in its advice, ICES warned that it cannot quantify the degree of stock mixing later in the year, and that any catches taken outside of the first quarter of the year would increase the danger of further declines. Moreover, the potential side effects of concentrating fishing effort into the first quarter, such as changes in gear selectivity or ecosystem impacts, have not been fully assessed, ICES said.
The advice covers Northern shelf cod populations across a wide area, including the North Sea, waters west of Scotland, the eastern English Channel, and the Skagerrak, which lies between Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
Fisheries in these waters involve multiple nations, with the UK, Norway, Denmark, and France among the most active cod fishers, alongside fleets from Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Sweden, which also operate in the region as part of mixed fisheries.
The advice will inform negotiations among EU and UK fisheries ministers, who will meet to decide on 2026 fishing quotas later this year.
