Rabobank has published the Global Aquaculture Update 1H 2024 report which alerts about the key factors that will affect the shrimp industry during the new year.
"Without a supply reduction, prices will remain at low levels. A key concern is the weakness in Chinese import demand. While Chinese demand may still be positive, high inventory levels and a slightly lower renminbi will dampen a shrimp price recovery."
On the other hand, the salmon industry will again be "the most profitable aquaculture sector in 1H 2024. High prices, albeit slightly less high than in 1H 2023, will combine with marginally lower feed costs and lower biological costs to support strong farmer profitability," the report concludes.
Finally, Rabobank explained that thanks to the decreasing effect of El Niño, the fishing in Peru will improve. "Consequently, better fish meal supply should enable normalization of the price as terrestrial commodity alternatives such as soybean meal have been easing in price throughout 2023, with further mild softness expected for 1H 2024."
The latest production survey results collated by Rabobank and published in November confirmed Ecuador's shrimp industry as the "fastest-growing major aquaculture industry in the world". However, in the same way, shrimp production growth in the country is expected to "decelerate" in 2024.
On a positive note, the survey results showed Asia's overall shrimp production is forecast to get back on track this year, expected to reach 4% growth in 2024 after a disappointing 2023, in which "a continuous downward trend made most of the industry unprofitable".