"Renewed optimism" for production growth, tempered by uncertainty over price recovery and market demand - that's the key takeaway from the latest seafood production survey results collated by Rabobank and the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA).
According to industry respondents to the survey, global shrimp production is predicted to recover in 2024, and perform even better than in 2022 - although still remaining below its 10-year historical average.
Overall, the survey results forecast a year-on-year global shrimp production growth of 4.8% in 2024.
The Rabobank-GSA report confirmed Ecuador's shrimp industry as the "fastest-growing major aquaculture industry in the world". However, shrimp production growth in the country is expected to "decelerate" in 2024, with respondents predicting a year-on-year growth of 7%.
This prediction, the report says, is based on the expectation of continued market demand from China, with "milder growth" predictions due to uncertainty over the effects of the El Niño phenomenon on shrimp aquaculture in Ecuador.
"Potential strong El Niño conditions pose downside risks due to heavy rains, which can increase flooding risks and potentially damage the infrastructure of ponds in Ecuador," the authors note.
In the Americas as a whole, the report noted that production was still expanding considerably, but shrimp supply growth was slowing somewhat.
The report highlighted Venezuela in particular as on a trajectory of rapid growth in recent years, ranking 4th place among Latin America's shrimp producers.
Meanwhile, Asia's overall shrimp production is forecast to get back on track next year, expected to reach 4% growth in 2024 after a disappointing 2023, in which "a continuous downward trend made most of the industry unprofitable".
India, which suffered a 12% contraction in 2023 with less vannamei and more monodon shrimp varieties stocked, is predicted to grow 2% in 2024.
Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to show a similar trend. During 2023 shrimp production in the country plummeted 15%, but hopes are higher for 2024 with 6% production growth expected.
The other leading Asian producers are all also expected to grow in production, with forecasts for China at 1.9%, Indonesia at 3.6% and Thailand at 1.3%.
Asia's expected bounce-back in 2024, however, is dependent on both demand and prices recovering to levels which will "incentivize" farmers to stock their ponds, the report notes.
Almost two-thirds of respondents expect global economic conditions will be better in 2024 compared to 2023. However, the survey showed that respondents "remain concerned that the weak global economy will inhibit a price recovery".
In the shrimp industry, the "number 1 concern" for 2024 is market prices - in comparison to worries over aquafeed costs in the preceding year's survey.
Despite this, the cost of feed remains a key issue for respondents, ranked at number 2, while access to market came in third place in the respondents' list of concerns.
