Norwegian cod may replace some of the Russian cod that is now disappearing from the American market.
The Norwegian Seafood Council
The USA has imposed a ban on the import of all Russian fish, including whitefish and fish processed in other countries. The analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council Eivind Hestvik Brækkan assesses what consequences this can bring to the Norwegian export market.
According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, around 40% of the USA's cod imports come from Russia, amounting to approximately 90,000 tons (rounded weight). Moreover, the majority of Russian cod travels via China and ends as double-frozen fillets before reaching the USA.
The new situation brings "opportunities and challenges" for producers from the USA but also from Norway and Iceland, Brækkan says: "The American boycott, combined with geopolitical conditions and new alliances between nations, creates a range of changes that can impact in various ways."
The USA remains uncharted territory for Norwegian exports. In 2023, Norwegian exported cod corresponded to only 175 million kroner of the 13.7 billion total seafood sold.
Furthermore, the double-frozen cod fillets processed in China and sold in the USA come from a small cod absent in Norway and have a lower price than Norwegian-produced frozen fillets.
For these reasons, the analyst highlights: "The question ultimately becomes whether Americans are willing to replace the 90,000 tons now disappearing with more expensive Norwegian and Icelandic fillet products."
Regarding frozen whole cod, Brækkan emphasizes the positive aspect as the Chinese "must find cod from other countries for their fillet production, and one alternative is Norwegian whole frozen fish."
Now it is presumed that the 2024 Russian cod quota of 200,000 tons will end up on the European market. But, Russian fish suffer restrictions in Europe as customs duties must be paid on all Russian cod imported into the EU. Therefore, Russian producers get lower payments.
So, the analyst predicts: "The Russian cod will eventually find its way to other countries where it does not face sanctions, such as Asia and consumers in its own country."
China went from being the second largest seafood supplier in the USA in 2018 to the seventh last year.
This translates into American customers changing their trend in tastes and buying more seafood from allied countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.
The Norwegian Seafood Council confirms that Vietnam has been the largest destination country for Norwegian frozen whole cod.
