In March, China's demand offset the decline in both salmon exports to the U.S. and frozen cod exports to the UK.
Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council.
Although it remains in the top 3—it was out in January, but re-entered in February—, last month the value of Norwegian seafood exports to the U.S. fell again, while in China it continued to grow. The unstoppable demand for Norwegian salmon in China accounted for most of the growth in Asia, growth that, in turn, offset the decline in exports to the United States, even with the added difficulties of the war in the Middle East.
"Norwegian seafood exports performed well in March, despite the war in the Middle East, a stronger Norwegian krone and a continued decline in exports to the US. This is largely due to increased salmon volumes, higher prices for several species such as salmon, cod, mackerel and saithe, as well as further growth in exports to China," summarized Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC).
Thus, after two months of decline, the trend in export value returned to positive territory in March. Norway exported seafood worth NOK 15.5 billion last month, which represents an increase of NOK 522 million, or 3%, compared with the same month in 2025. However, from a quarterly perspective, the decline continues. So far this year, it has exported seafood worth NOK 43.8 billion, which, as NSC explained, represents a decline of NOK 449 million, or 1%, compared with Q1 2025.
Last month, 63% of Norwegian seafood exports went to Europe, exactly the same percentage as in March 2025. Meanwhile, 23% went to Asia, 5% more than in the same month last year, and 9% went to the U.S., 4% less year-on-year. By country, Poland—a traditionally processing market—was the top destination, followed by China and the United States.
"The war in the Middle East has been particularly challenging for salmon exporters due to increased fuel costs and changes to air freight routes. The fact that export value nevertheless increased in March demonstrates not only how adaptable the salmon industry is, but also that there is generally high demand for Norwegian salmon in the Asian market," Chramer explained.
The logistical challenges caused by the war did not prevent China from seeing the largest growth in value in March 2026, with an increase in export value of NOK 552 million, or 68%, compared with March 2025. In total, last month, Norway exported seafood to China worth NOK 1.4 billion.
Nevertheless, as the CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council explained, China was not the only destination for Norwegian products. "It is the increased exports of salmon to China that account for most of the growth in Asia, but key markets such as South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan also saw a solid increase in export value in March," he said.
While this was happening in Asia, in the U.S., Norwegian seafood exports fell for the third consecutive month. Specifically, they fell by over NOK 500 million compared with the same month last year, particularly affecting salmon fillet exports, since, even with increased exports of salmon fillets to several other markets, total exports of both fresh and frozen fillets fell in March.
According to Christian Chramer, the main reason for the decline of exports to the U.S. was increased tariffs and a weaker dollar against the Norwegian krone, which has strengthened by almost 10% the US dollar and 3% against the euro compared with March last year.
"The strengthening of the krone is dragging down the value of exports measured in Norwegian kroner," he explained. "The growth in export value is due to price increases for most species, as well as increased export volumes for species such as salmon, haddock, snow crab and herring."
Added to all this were the consequences of the low cod quotas, which continued in March and caused catches in the first quarter to fall to less than half of what they were in 2022 and to be at their lowest level since the beginning of the century.
"At the same time, high prices are creating uncertainty as to whether the increased raw material costs can be passed on further up the value chain for processed products. This development has consequences for exports of all cod products and is contributing to this year's season potentially becoming a struggle for survival for many in the onshore industry," the NSC CEO emphasised.
Despite the fact that, as mentioned above, the effects of the war in the Middle East have caused logistical challenges in the salmon trade, according to the Norwegian Seafood Council, March was a strong month. Norway exported 106,000 tons of salmon worth NOK 10.5 billion. The value increased by NOK 622 million, or 6% year-on-year, while the volume grew by 4%.
After a month of war, in March, the volume of whole fresh salmon exported to Saudi Arabia fell by 13%, to the United Arab Emirates by 33%, and to Qatar by 85%. However, as NSC seafood analyst Paul T. Aandahl pointed out, time has corrected this trend.
"At the start of the war, volumes fell particularly sharply, but in the last week of March, exports to countries such as Saudi Arabia and Israel were at a near-normal level," Aandahl explained, adding that trade with Israel has also been affected.
"Exports to Israel, which buys a lot of salmon fillets from Norway, have overall fallen by 13% in volume compared with the same month last year," the seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council continued.
However, while this was happening in the Middle East, export volumes to other Asian countries were increasing. Specifically, exports of whole fresh salmon to China increased by 61% in volume, but Thailand, with 37% more, South Korea, with a 24% increase, and Taiwan, with 53% up, also recorded strong growth in volume in March compared to the same month last year.
"It is the strong growth in demand for fresh Norwegian salmon that is driving the volume growth. It is worth noting that this growth is occurring despite a rise in prices," seafood analyst Paul T. Aandahl highlighted.
This was also how, as Christian Chramer pointed out, the strong growth in exports to China—the start of the year was exceptional—"largely offset the decline in value to the U.S. overall."
However, while salmon once again stood out as the star of Norwegian seafood exports, another salmonid, trout, did not fare as well. Norway exported 5,100 tons of trout worth NOK 512 million in March. That meant that, compared with the same month last year, the value fell by NOK 33 million, or 6%, while the volume fell by 15%.
Regarding cod, the month was marked by a significant drop in the volume of fresh cod exports. 4,000 tons were exported, worth NOK 404 million, which, compared to March of last year, represented a decrease in value of NOK 49 million, or 11%, and a decrease in volume of 31%. Denmark, the Netherlands, and Spain were the largest markets.
Last month, fresh cod catches fell 19% year-on-year, leading to a sharp decline in exports of fresh wild cod, which dropped 27% to a total of 2,896 tons. Furthermore, in March, the volume of farmed fresh cod exports also fell, specifically to 1,127 tons, representing a 41% decrease compared to March 2025.
As the seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council, Eivind Hestvik Brækkan, pointed out, "This is the lowest export volume of fresh wild cod in a March since 2009." However, at the same time, the export price of NOK 105 per kg for fresh whole wild cod was the highest ever recorded in a single month. This is a full 31% higher than in March last year.
"The price rise is a result of lower quotas and high demand," Brækkan said. "The onshore industry in Norway is competing with fresh markets abroad for raw materials for the production of salted fish, clipfish and stockfish. With a sharp decline in the supply of fresh cod again this year, competition is fiercer than it has been for a very long time."
This year, the sharp decline in export volumes also affected quality-labelled skrei, which saw how, year-on-year, its value fell by 28%, while volume fell by 44%. According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, the sharp decline in export volumes of quality-labelled skrei is not surprising, and, even in Spain, which remained the largest consumer market for Norwegian quality-labelled skrei, volumes fell sharply.
"With prices for non-quality-labelled fresh cod already at record highs, there are probably many consumers who are not willing to pay even more for quality-labelled skrei," Eivind Hestvik Brækkan said. "Future growth in consumption and exports of quality-labelled skrei will likely depend on increased quotas," he added.
March was also a difficult month for frozen cod, as the decline in catches is weighing down export volumes. Norway exported 2,200 tons worth NOK 237 million, which, compared to the same month last year, represented a drop in value of NOK 57 million, or 19%, and a decrease in volume of 33%. The UK, France, and Vietnam were the largest markets.
Thus, although the United Kingdom was the largest destination market for Norwegian frozen cod in March, the value of exports to this country fell by up to 59%, while the volume dropped by 68% compared to the same month in 2025. However, as with salmon in the case of the U.S., China also emerged to offset the declines in the case of frozen cod.
The Asian giant saw the highest growth in value in March, with an increase in export value of NOK 21 million, or 164%, compared with the same month last year, while export volume of frozen cod stood at 562 tons, which is 147% higher than in March 2025.
Despite everything, as Brækkan explained, exports to China in the first quarter were still significantly lower than last year, as large fluctuations in individual months are common for frozen cod. "It is therefore too early to conclude whether the strong growth to China will continue," he said.
Regarding exports of other cod-derived products, the low catch volumes are also affected, as they imply higher costs for producers and, consequently, for the final markets.
So far in March, the only species that seemed to escape the decline was cod clipfish, which saw a 24% increase in export value, despite a volume increase of only 1%. However, we will have to wait for the coming months to see if this trend continues, as Easter fell in March this year, and, as WeAreAquaculture explained last year, Norwegian clipfish is a staple at Easter tables in many countries. Portugal remained the main market, although demand fell due to higher prices.
Regarding salted fish, exports last month generally declined by 50% in value and 52% in volume. Of these, 69% were cod, and these were also affected by the quota reductions.
Finally, with a 33% drop in value and a 21% drop in volume, March was also a slow month for stockfish. In the case of cod, by far the largest species of stockfish, the export volume fell by as much as 50%.
