Bright wooden spoon with capsules of fish oil on the background of the fish.
Adobe Stock
The Dutch cooperative bank Rabobank has published a recent report indicating that fishmeal shortages will begin in 2028, while fish oil scarcity is expected to intensify throughout the decade.
The rising demand for fishmeal and fish oil, driven by the expansion of high-value species and the adoption of more intensive farming practices, is being impacted by supply disruptions caused by climate change and recurring El Niño events.
The main consequences of this shortage will be a further increase in demand inelasticity, leading to greater price volatility and the establishment of higher benchmarks during future supply shocks. This demand inelasticity has emerged in recent years, as supply disruptions have had a more pronounced impact on fishmeal and fish oil prices.
The authority also states that novel feed sources will play a critical role — not merely as alternatives, but as essential components in future feed formulations within the aquaculture industry.
According to IFFO, the Marine Ingredients Organisation, in 2024 fishmeal production increased by 26% and fish oil production rose by 12% compared to the previous year. However, in May 2025, total cumulative fishmeal production decreased by approximately 2% compared to the same period in 2024. The same occurred with total cumulative fish oil production, which declined slightly year-on-year.
Last week, the global collaboration group F3 – Future of Fish Feed launched a challenge to promote innovation in aquaculture feeds and reward fish farms that prioritize this transformation. The F3 Fish Farm Challenge encourages aquaculture farms to adopt feeds that do not rely on marine ingredients such as fishmeal, fish oil, or krill, thereby promoting a more responsible and resilient aquaculture production.
