Marine ingredients should be treated as "strategic, finite resources" says lead author Professor Ling Cao.
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Aquaculture’s rapid global expansion could be held back by its dependence on a fragile feed supply, according to new research published in the scientific journal Nature Food.
The study, carried out by scientists from Xiamen University, the University of Massachusetts Boston, the University of Arizona and the University of Tasmania, suggests the industry must find an additional 1.8 million tonnes of alternative feed ingredients each year to meet rising demand for farmed seafood such as salmon and shrimp.
Lead author Professor Ling Cao of Xiamen University said the findings represent “a practical moment to secure feed supply and unlock new value streams”, adding: “Treating fishmeal and fish oil as strategic, finite resources, while accelerating alternative innovations, can help sustain aquaculture growth and reduce exposure to supply variability.”
The study used a shortfall impact model to test how different forage fish supply scenarios might affect global aquaculture. It found that climate change and stricter fisheries management could reduce catches of forage fish by almost 20%, which in turn could lead to a 35% drop in fed aquaculture output. For some high-value species, production could fall by more than 70% if alternatives are not scaled up, the researchers found.
Co-author Professor Kevin Fitzsimmons of the University of Arizona said that while aquaculture has already improved its efficiency in using fishmeal and oil, “continued progress will come from expanding supply options and advancing technologies in feed formulation and circular resources use.”
The authors said that recognising the limits of fishmeal and fish oil should go hand in hand with accelerating the development of alternative protein sources and feed innovations, such as microbial, algal, insect-based and plant proteins, along with improvements in breeding and recycling systems.
The researchers point to recent events demonstrating the risks of supply disruption, such as the closure of Peru’s anchoveta fishery in 2023, one of the world’s largest, which caused major shortages in fish oil. According to the researchers, commercially available algae-based oils helped to fill part of the gap, but the episode highlighted the urgency of developing more scalable alternatives.
The research was conducted by volunteer judges of the F3 – Future of Fish Feed initiative, a collaboration between NGOs, universities and private partners that seeks to accelerate the commercialisation of sustainable aquaculture feed ingredients.
The organisation recently launched a challenge to promote innovation in aquaculture feeds and reward fish farms prioritizing a shift away from marine ingredients, with a shared prize of $200,000.
